I stumbled upon this video yesterday of Polly Toynbee interviewing Nick Clegg. In view of Clegg's increasingly impressive performance over the last few weeks, it got me thinking about the prospects for his newly energised leadership. Following Charles Kennedy and Menzies Campbell was always going to be a tough ask for a young MP with very little name recognition - and so it has proved. Much of the criticism that has swirled around Nick Clegg's leadership, though, is unfair. He was unfortunate to ascend to the leadership at a time when David Cameron was busy articulating a renewed liberal Toryism. The flurry of interest around the new Tory leader had a significant destabilising effect on Clegg's leadership and overshadowed what to many observers is now clear - that of the three most recent Liberal Democrat leaders, he is easily the most impressive figure.
In an age when people crave authenticity above all else, the Liberal Democrat leader seems a genuinely engaged and committed personality. Nick Clegg is a man who speaks with real passion and eloquence on a great many things, but above all on issues around civil liberties and freedom. Deeply schooled in political philosophy, one senses that this is a man guided by a clear set of principles. And the glaring distinction between a Liberal Democrat leader who is open, articulate and engaged and a Labour leader holed up in his bunker, paranoid, aloof and only ever appearing in front of hand-picked audiences, is one of the great contrasts in Westminster politics.
At a time when a clear statement of the argument for classical liberalism is sorely needed, he makes the case with great insight, passion and flair. His core philosophy fits seamlessly with much of the new Tory thinking around issues of localism and the renewal of democracy and so there is much for Conservatives to admire in Nick Clegg. When a liberal leader openly proclaims his anti-statism as well as his belief in localism and democratic renewal - all longstanding Tory themes - what is left of the old policy of equidistance? Clegg would doubtless reject the premise of the question, arguing instead, in an echo of the old refrain ‘neither right nor left, but out in front’, that the old categories have outlived their usefulness.
But on any objective measure, Clegg is closer to the Tories than he is Labour. In place of the vague, leftish social democracy of Paddy Ashdown and Charles Kennedy we find a considered, coherent, classical English liberalism at the core of Clegg’s philosophy. His instincts tend always towards decentralisation, rebalancing the constitution and devolving power away from the centre. So Nick Clegg is a man with whom Conservatives can do business. To Westminster insiders this is no great secret. There is broad agreement between the two front benches on many aspects of policy. Don’t expect the Liberal Democrat leader to shout about it too loudly though. Edge too close to Toryism and you frighten off disaffected Labour voters. But the prospect of Nick Clegg propping up a minority Labour administration is remote. It is inconceivable that the Liberal Democrats under Nick Clegg will be able to work with a minority Labour government for any length of time. The areas of disagreement are simply too great.
For him to maintain any sort of working relationship with the Tories, though, he will need to develop a more critical pro-Europeanism than he has yet showed us. He will be aware of the glaring contradiction between his avowal of transparency and accountability in the Westminster context on the one hand, and his party’s rather slavish devotion to all things European on the other. Exactly how he proposes to square his liberalism with the democratic deficit at the heart of EU decision making is not yet clear. But he will have to moderate his pro-Europeanism. Remember, the ramifications of the Westminster expenses scandal have not yet played themselves out. As the clamour for transparency and accountability works its way through our politics, the Liberal Democrats will find that they are simply on the wrong side of the argument on Europe. Pressure is growing for real reform and he will need to position himself carefully on the issue or suffer electorally. So expect a much more nuanced and considered approach to Europe Policy in the coming year than we have seen thus far. The upshot of all this is that if Clegg negotiates the next year successfully and all this plays out as I expect, we could be faced with the very real prospect of a historic realignment on the right, and that means Conservatives have less reason to fear a hung parliament than they think.