Pity Mr. Mousavi. With the Supreme Leader’s speech this morning, the crisis in Iran has now entered its most critical phase. Until now, opposition forces have stopped short of challenging the legitimacy of the Islamic regime. By declaring for Ahmadinejad, however, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei effectively upped the ante this morning, placing both his leadership and the authority of the Islamic Republic on the line. The question now is just how far the opposition, and Mr. Mousavi in particular, are prepared to go. He and they have a choice; accept Mr. Ahmadinejad as President or plunge into the unknown. It boils down to a simple test of nerves. This was a calculated provocation by the regime and the pressure on Mr. Mousavi now is immense. How he will respond is unclear.
What is clear is that a proud people, an ancient people, a magical civilisation, beaten by this brutal regime into submission, aching for an end to the indignities visited upon them, have finally said ‘Enough!’. And so the siren call at the centre of Ayatollah Khamenei’s speech must be resisted. The turn away from politics to spirituality, towards the consolations of irrationality, unreason, faith, is the very opposite of what the Iranian people need. They have sought comfort in the false certainties of religion for too long. They of all people know that, of all the great pathologies that swirl around the Middle East, this is the most disabling, the most wretched; the most deceitful and wicked of all the great lies. What they want and need now more than ever, above all else, is for their politics to work.
And so what the Iranian people must understand above everything is that this speech was a deeply hostile act - at once a defiant, menacing, thuggish, brutal and yet ultimately self-defeating piece of political positioning, effectively setting regime and people on a collision course. If they understand that, the way forward will become clear. As the regime gathers its forces and the opposition draws breath, the world watches and waits, not knowing which way events will turn. My fervent hope is that the Iranian people will reject the false certainties and failed dogmas of the past, stand up, and assume something like their full height as a people.